market reports

OLED Lighting Markets-2014

Six years ago, OLED lighting was first being proposed as a serious commercial product.  Back then, 2014 was projected as the year when OLED lighting would first make its impact felt on general illumination.  It didn’t happen. OLED lighting has been available for four years now, but with few signs of its moving beyond the luxury and specialist lighting sector.  Also, the disappearance of GE from this space is another reason to treat OLED lighting with a little less respect than it once had.
 
So is it time to wave goodbye to OLED lighting as a large-scale business opportunity and label it “niche only?” The case can be made.  But then again some large lighting suppliers remain bullish on this technology and appear to mean what they say. 
 
Also, the fate of OLED lighting remains of importance well beyond the lighting sector.  Because OLED consist of large panels, their success or failure has major implications for both the OLED materials sector and the OLED market itself.  Even a modest success for OLED lighting could quickly make it the largest segment of the OLED business; which would completely change the market orientation of the OLED market from one that is currently oriented towards small mobile displays.
 
In this complex market environment, NanoMarkets believes that it is time for a detailed and honest assessment of both the current value proposition and future revenue timeframes for OLED lighting.  This is the objective of this report, which includes eight-year (volume and value) projections of OLED lighting in all the major market sectors along with an assessment of how OLED lighting can effectively compete with LEDs and CFLs in those segments.  In addition, this report  analyzes the core strategies of leading players in the OLED lighting space, including their plans for building manufacturing capacity for OLED lighting.

Executive Summary

  • Objectives and scope of this report 
  • Methodology and information sources 
  • Plan of report
  • Major changes from the previous report 
  • Will OLED lighting ever be more than a luxury niche?  
  • Who will shape the future of the OLED lighting Industry? 
  • Geographies: Thoughts on national and regional OLED lighting markets
  • Opportunities for OLED lighting start-ups
  • Implications for OLED material companies
  • Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets

Chapter One: Introduction

  • Global presence of the OLED lighting industry
  • Commercial application trends
  • Performance comparison: Key parameters
  • Favorable factors for the industry
  • Key Issues faced by the industry
  • Trends in OLED material deposition techniques
  • Ways to achieve cost reduction targets
  • Material and process improvement timeline
  • Current production facility of key OLED lighting players
  • Status of commercial availability of OLED lighting
  • Companies involved and major investments
  • OLED lighting industry: Possible market scenarios


Chapter Two: Manufacturing, Materials and Performance Trends Shaping OLED Lighting Commercialization

  • Key performance factors impacting the success of OLED lighting
  • OLED light performance: current status and future targets
  • OLED light performance: What can be expected
  • Lifetime trends: in need of a substantial enhancement
  • Key efficacy issues and probable solutions
  • Bigger OLED panels: Key developments
  • Migration toward large panels: a necessary development
  • Large sized panels: Final verdict
  • Luminance trends: Key strategies for improvement
  • Color warmth: Not a major problem
  • OLED light performance: Impact on addressable market
  • Flexible (Curved) OLED
  • Flexible OLED panels: The reality
  • The question of flexible OLEDs in automobiles
  • Practical manufacturing issues requiring industry’s attention
  • Manufacturing factors shaping OLED lighting industry
  • Cost reduction Initiative: Choice of deposition process
  • Solution processing process: Key developments
  • Encapsulation: A major technical hurdle to fabrication
  • Choice of materials: Organic stack components
  • Choice of materials: Substrates
  • Choice of materials: Light extraction materials
  • OLED Production Yields: Key developments
  • OLED lighting manufacturing capacity estimation
  • Manufacturing capacity expansion Plans: Key players
  • European panel makers: Lagging behind Asian counterparts
  • Manufacturing approach: Current expectations
  • Manufacturing approach: What can be expected
  • Manufacturing cost trends
  • Cost structure: Comparison and key reduction drivers
  • OLED lighting commercialization catalyst
  • Key points made in this chapter

Chapter Three:  Addressable Markets for OLED Lighting - Actual and Potential

  • Status of OLED lighting
  • Forecasting assumptions
  • Key consumer markets: A geographic analysis
  • Asia at the forefront of commercialization
  • European R&D efforts to enhance the prospects for OLED lighting
  • Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
  • OLED luminaire trends: Design, cost and other factors
  • Designer kits and samples: Market evolution
  • Trends in designer kits and samples 
  • Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
  • Office lighting: A killer application? 
  • Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
  • Potential use of OLEDs in residential lighting 
  • Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
  • Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting 
  • Encapsulation issues in outdoor lighting
  • Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications 
  • Scope of OLEDs in outdoor (non-automotive) lighting 
  • Promise of OLED lighting for cars and other vehicles
  • Potential hurdles to OLED in external automobile lighting 
  • Scope of OLED lighting in internal transportation lighting
  • Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
  • Evaluation of OLED lighting in large-scale custom installations
  • Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
  • Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting
  • Key points made in this chapter

List of Forecast Exhibits

  • Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting markets
  • Forecasting assumptions
  • Eight-year forecast of designer kits and samples
  • Eight-year forecast of office and commercial lighting applications
  • Eight-year forecast of residential lighting applications
  • Eight-year forecast of outdoor lighting applications 
  • Share by country of OLED lighting consumption
  • Eight-year forecast of automotive lighting applications
  • Eight-year forecast of customized large-scale custom installations
  • Summary of eight-year forecasts of OLED lighting

New NanoMarkets Report Projects OLED Lighting Market to Hit Revenues of $1.4 billion in 2019

Glen Allen, VA: Industry analyst firm NanoMarkets has just published its latest forecasts of the OLED lighting market predicting a $1.4 billion market opportunity in 2019.  The report, “OLED Lighting Markets-2014” (Code Nano-721) notes that while the sector has foundered for the past few years it now appears to be worthy of some renewed optimism based on both on both improvements in OLED lighting panel performance and recent expansion of manufacturing facilities.

Details of the report, including a table of contents and downloadable slides are available at http://ntechresearch.com/market_reports/oled-lighting-markets-2014

A companion report titled OLED Materials Markets 2014 will be issued in early June.  See http://ntechresearch.com/market_reports/oled-materials-markets-2014

Highlights:

OLEDs aren’t just for luxury lighting any more.  The efficacy and luminance of OLED lighting panels are reaching levels where OLED lighting firms can claim that their products are truly energy efficient and have the brightness that make them a practical form of lighting for offices and homes.  For example, LG Chem says that next year it will have 135 lm/W panels with 5,000 cd/m2 luminance.

Until recently, most of the output of the OLED lighting business was development kits for designers.  However, in the next few years, revenues from kits will be rapidly overtaken by revenues from OLED luminaires, with revenues from OLED luminaires for homes reaching almost $400 million in sales by 2019 and revenues from OLED office luminaires reaching almost $380 million in the same year.

OLED capacity continues to grow.  In the past three years, Osram and Philips have invested $25 million and $57 million respectively in setting up OLED production lines.  Meanwhile, Konica Minolta is currently constructing an OLED mass production facility at an approximate investment of around $100 million.  

By next year, worldwide capacity for OLED lighting panels is expected to be around 30 million panels.  This number is expected to grow to almost 40 million by 2019.  NanoMarkets believes that in the next five years there will be a major influx of low-cost (and possibly government subsidized) Chinese suppliers that will force down OLED lighting prices in a manner similar to what the solar panel industry has experienced.

About the Report:

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the OLED lighting market, assesses its future potential and offers detailed eight-year forecasts for the OLED lighting business including volume (units and square meters shipped) and value projections of the following market segments:  designer kits and related products, office and commercial lighting, residential lighting, non-automotive outdoor lighting, automotive lighting and customized installations.  

The report also includes projections of manufacturing capacity for OLED lighting panels and an assessment of which geographic regions will prove the best customers for OLED lighting.

In addition, we examine the product development and marketing strategies of the leading and influential players in the OLED lighting sector, including both large and small lighting firms and the key OLED material suppliers.  Among the firms discussed in this report are Acuity Brands, Audi, BASF, Blackbody, BJB, Cheil/Novaled, Dupont Teijin, ETAP Lighting, First—O-Light, Ford, Henkel, Kaneka, Konica Minolta, Ledon, LG Chem, Lumiotec, MC Pioneer, Merck, NEC Lighting, OLEDWorks, Orbotech, Osram, Philips, Pixelligent, Samsung, Sumitomo, UDC and WAC Lighting.

About NanoMarkets:

NanoMarkets tracks and analyzes emerging markets in energy, electronics and other area created by developments in advanced materials. The firm is a recognized leader in industry analysis and forecasts in OLED lighting and materials spaces, which it has been covering since 2006.

Visit http://www.nanomarkets.net for a full listing of NanoMarkets' reports and other services.

Contact:

Robert Nolan
NanoMarkets
(804) 938-0030
rob@nanomarkets.net

posted May 14, 2014

n-tech research  what's next in emerging technology 

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