E.1 What's Changed in OPV
E.1.1 Moving the Goalposts, Again: Towards Realistic Expectations for OPV
E.2 Technology Update: Final Steps Toward Commercial Readiness
E.2.1 Moving That Efficiency Needle
E.2.2 What's Holding Back Lifetime Improvements?
E.2.3 Preparing for Production
E.2.4 Materials Trends
E.2.5 Device Structure Trends
E.3 Fighting for Position, and a New Threat Arises
E.3.1 The Threat of DSC and Perovskites
E.3.2 CIGS versus OPV
E.4 Application Update: Entering the Promised Land
E.4.1 Then as Now, BIPV Beckons
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 OPV Struggling But Good Long-Term Potential
1.1.2 OPV, DSC, CIGS: Where They Stand
1.1.3 Key Technical Challenges and Probable Solutions for OPV
1.1.4 Markets for OPV: Decisions, Decisions
1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Technology Trends in Organic Photovoltaics
2.1 The Latest OPV Performance Improvements
2.1.1 Efficiency: Cracking the Double-Digits Code
2.1.2 Lifetimes: Still A Long Way to Go
2.1.3 Production Approaches: Progress for Printing
2.2 Materials Trends
2.2.1 Polymer vs. Solutions: Evening the Playing Field
2.2.2 Finding the Right Transparent Conductor
2.2.3 Graphene as a Photoactive Layer
2.2.4 Fullerene-free Acceptor Materials
2.2.5 A Word About Substrates
2.2.6 Research Directions in OPV Materials
2.3 Device Structure Trends
2.3.1 Improved Hole and Electron Extraction Layers
2.3.2 Moving toward Tunable Bandgap and Solubility
2.3.3 Stack for Success: From Single to Tandem/Cascading Architectures
2.4 Collaborative Industry OPV Research Efforts
2.5 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Three: Markets for OPV
3.1 Making the Case for OPV
3.2 Competitive Advantages: OPV, DSC, and Thin-Film
3.2.1 OPV and DSC: Where Are They Now?
3.2.2 Thin-Film: CIGS and CdTe
3.3 Application Status of OPV
3.3.1 BIPV: Ready or Not?
3.3.2 Solar Chargers: Near-Term Lure, Long-Term Mirage?
3.4.3 Other Off-Grid Applications: Can the Case Still be Made?
3.3.4 Which Market Strategy Is Right for OPV Right Now?
3.4 Key Points from This Chapter
Chapter Four: OPV Vendors and Suppliers, Strategies and Technologies
4.1.1 Technology Summary
4.1.2 Areas of Technology Improvements
4.1.3 Manufacturing Progress
4.1.4 Market Strategy
4.1.5 Key Partnership: AGC
4.1.6 Pilot Projects in the Field
4.1.7 Funding Picture
4.2 Armor Group (France)
4.2.1 Market Strategy
4.2.2 Technology Progress
4.2.3 Business Outlook
4.3 Belectric (Germany)
4.3.1 OPV Products
4.3.2 Key Partnerships
4.3.3 Business Outlook
4.4 AGC (Japan)
4.4.1 Market Strategy
4.4.2 Business Outlook
4.5 Mitsubishi Chemical (Japan)
4.5.1 Technology Progress
4.5.2 Pilot Project
4.5.3 Business Outlook
4.6 Next Energy (United States)
4.6.1 Technology Summary
4.6.2 Market Strategy
4.6.3 Emphasis on Partnerships
4.6.4 Funding and Investors
4.7 Merck (Germany)
4.7.1 Technology Collaborations
4.8 CSEM Brasil (Switzerland/Brazil)
4.8.1 Market Strategy
4.8.2 Technology Progress
4.8.3 Business Outlook
4.9 Sumitomo Chemical (Japan)
4.9.1 Technology Progress
4.9.2 Business Outlook
4.10 Toshiba (Japan)
4.10.1 Technical Progress
4.10.2 Business Outlook
4.11 BASF (Germany)
4.11.1 Key Partnerships
4.11.2 Market Strategy
4.12 Solarmer (United States)
4.12.1 Technical Progress
4.12.2 Market Strategy
4.12.3 Business Outlook
4.13 Heraeus (Germany)
4.13.1 Technical Progress
4.13.2 Market Strategy and Business Outlook
4.14 Eight19 (U.K.)
4.14.1 Technical Progress
4.14.2 Market Strategy
4.14.3 Business Outlook
4.15 DisaSolar (France)
4.15.1 Market Strategy
4.15.2 Technology Progress
4.15.3 Key Partnerships
4.16 Past Praise: Where Are They Now?
4.16.2 Global Photonic Energy
4.16.3 New Energy Technologies
Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts and Market Analysis for OPV
5.1 Key Factors Driving OPV
5.1.1 Forecasting Methodology
5.1.2 Assumptions and Scenarios
5.2 Eight-Year Forecasts for OPV
5.2.1 Off-Grid OPV Markets
5.2.2 Grid-Connected Markets
5.2.3 OPV Materials and Devices
5.2.4 Summaries of OPV Markets
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Recent BIPV Pilot Projects for OPV..
Exhibit E-2: Summary of OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022.
Exhibit 2-1: OPV Efficiency-Related Improvements.
Exhibit 2-2: Polymer vs. Oligomer OPV Pros and Cons.
Exhibit 2-3: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for PV Electrodes.
Exhibit 2-4: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirement in OPV..
Exhibit 2-5: Structure of a Bulk Heterojunction OPV Cell Architecture.
Exhibit 2-6: Industry Collaborative OPV Research Projects.
Exhibit 3-1: OPV Firms and their Go-To-Market Goals.
Exhibit 3-2: BIPV glass in Various Applications and its Opportunities.
Exhibit 3-3: OE-A Expectations for OPV Market Penetration.
Exhibit 5-1: Efficiency Improvements Over Time in the OPV Market 2015-2022.
Exhibit 5-2: Off-Grid OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022.
Exhibit 5-3: Grid-Connected OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022.
Exhibit 5-4: BIPV Market Scenarios.
Exhibit 5-5: OPV Materials Market 2015-2022.
Exhibit 5-6: Summary of the OPV Market 2015-2022.
Exhibit 5-7: Summary of OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022.
Glen Allen, VA: While organic photovoltaics (OPV) still hasn't achieved escape velocity from lab results into real commercialized products, according to a new report from industry analyst firm NanoMarkets, the current window for achieving success appears to be shaping up in a medium-term scope. New projections from the firm forecast OPV revenues to crack $500 million in revenues by 2022 -- assuming the roadmaps and plans of key OPV firms stay the course and are not delayed any more.
About the Report:
OPV cells have continued to draw focus of much research because of the allure of their core attributes: they are lightweight, flexible, inexpensive, highly tunable, and potentially disposable. Yet OPV has spent the better part of a decade struggling to translate these competitive promises from labs into real-world products. Expectations for OPV have stalled over the past couple of years, not least due to the demise of its former figurehead Konarka which defined OPV's persistent failure to make any money for investors. Meanwhile, rival thin-film PV technologies and especially dye-sensitized solar (and its newest iteration, perovskites) continue to press ahead and are arguably further along.
Despite OPV's persistent sluggishness, NanoMarkets does see some encouraging signs that the technology really is moving closer to commercial readiness -- and perhaps even knocking on the doorstep, if one believes the most optimistic views -- enough to put some early market traction within reach:
- Conversion efficiency levels continue to rise, now above 12% in labs and upwards of 5% in pilot production.
- At least as much attention is on significantly improving lifetimes into double-digit years.
- Companies such as Heliatek and Belectric (which picked up some of the Konarka technology) have picked up the mantle alongside promising startups, and some key industry partners such as AGC Glass Europe and Armor Group have strategically committed to OPV's eventual success
- Several pilot production facilities are up and running, and recent field test installations aim to show OPV in several different iterations
In this report, we identify where money could be made in OPV over the next eight-years, given recent trends in technology and end markets. We explore the latest technical areas of improvement, and where still more is needed, in cell/module components and materials to OPV devices. We also examine the product and business strategies of the dozen or so companies who are positioning themselves in the OPV landscape, as well as the evolving expectations from the target markets of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) and off-grid solar charging. The report includes detailed eight-year forecasts for OPV materials and devices, and for the various markets where we expect OPV to enter the market -- or at least where proponents hope it will.
Companies discussed in this report include: Armor Group, AGC, BASF, Belectric, CSEM Brazil, DisaSolar, Eight19, Global Photonic Energy, Heliatek, Heraeus, Merck, Mitsubishi Chemical, New Energy Technologies, Next Energy, Polyera, Solarmer, Sumitomo Chemical, and Toshiba.
NanoMarkets tracks and analyzes emerging markets in energy, electronics and other area created by developments in advanced materials. The firm is a recognized leader in industry analysis and forecasts of the BIPV sector and the PV sector more generally. Visit http://www.nanomarkets.net
for a full listing of NanoMarkets' reports and other services.
posted Jan 29, 2015